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Late paddy planting in the flood affected areas of Bihar, Odisha, Assam and Karnataka has reduced the deficit in paddy area to just 2% as compared to last year. With planting of early varieties and transplanting is saplings from nurseries still on, the deficit is likely to be over by next week. The overall acreage, however, is almost touching the last year’s level – down by less than 0.5%. 

“Water has receded from most of the area making it even more conducive for paddy planting. We expect to cover up the deficit by next week as there are reports of planting from some parts of Bihar, Assam and Odisha,” said a senior agriculture department official. 

Sources in the agriculture ministry say that the output of paddy is likely to be down by 10-15% in this Kharif season due to floods in main paddy growing areas of Odisha, Assam and Bihar and less rains in parts of West Bengal and Jharkhand. 

“In last Kharif season, as per the 4th advance estimate, the rice output is estimated at 102.13 million tonnes. It will be 10-15% less this Kharif. However, due to late rains and floods in paddy growing areas, there is likely to be rise in Rabi output of paddy and overall paddy production may touch last year’s record levels. In 2018-19, it has been estimated at 14 million tonnes with an overall record production of over 116 million tonnes,” said another agriculture department official. 

However, agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar, last week, had told ET that the government expects record production of food grains this year. 

“There is no concern on output due to flood. We expect record food grains. I have been maintaining since beginning of the season that monsoon will be good and there is no concern on production,” he had said. 

Apart from paddy, the area under cultivation is down only in pulses and sugar cane. In other crops including oilseeds, cotton and coarse cereals, the area is either higher or at last year’s levels. 

“Pulses area is down by around 2% while sugarcane is down by 5% in Karnataka and Maharashtra. The output of sugarcane will be affected due to floods in these areas but production of pulses is unlikely to be down due to higher yielding varieties,” said another official. 

Cumulative rainfall this season as was 3% above normal rainfall despite a relatively dry spell over the last few days. 

Due to heavy rain in August, major reservoirs are brimming with water, at about 111% of last year’s levels, allaying fears of a shortage for irrigation and drinking. 

“Due to late surge in rains, the moisture-content in soil looks healthy. While there doesn’t seem to be any drop in kharif output, rabi production, too, looks promising with filled reservoirs,” said PK Joshi, Fellow, National Academy of Agricultural Sciences.